June 24 2025

Both the FHFA and Case‑Shiller home price indices were released today. While the data collection time frame is from April, they each suggest a similar shift is underway when adjusting for seasonality. Specifically, if we ignore seasonality, prices rose.  If we don't, they were down 0.4% from March. FHFA House Price Index (seasonally adjusted, MoM) April: −0.4%; March was revised from −0.1% to 0.0% YoY: +3.0% from April 2024 to April 2025 Monthly figures varied regionally: the West South Central and South Atlantic divisions posted the steepest falls (−1.3%), while the Middle Atlantic rose +1.2%. All nine divisions remain positive YoY (ranging from +0.5% to +7.4%). The 0.4% drop is in line with slower spring momentum—not drastic, but a continued cooling from prior gains. The upward revision in March helps to offset April's declines to some extent. Case‑Shiller National Index (unadjusted) YoY: +2.7% in April, down from +3.4% in March MoM (raw): +0.6% MoM (seasonally adjusted): −0.4%

June 20 2025

The latest Residential Construction report from the Census Bureau showed a noticeable drop in overall housing starts in May, though single-family activity managed a small gain. Building permits also declined, continuing a trend of slight cooling in new construction momentum. As usual, the market focuses most on building permits and housing starts , with the latter representing the beginning of actual construction activity. Total starts fell nearly 10% to an annual pace of 1.256 million , down from 1.392 million in April. The decline was almost entirely due to a sharp drop in multifamily starts , which fell from 420k to 316k , the lowest level in over a year. In contrast, single-family starts edged up slightly to 924k from 920k . Building permits—a forward-looking indicator—also declined, dropping 2% from 1.422 million to 1.393 million . That included a 2.7% decline in single-family permits and a moderate slowdown in multifamily authorizations.

June 20 2025

Mortgage application activity declined modestly last week despite a drop in rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest survey. The Composite Index fell 2.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 13, with both purchase and refinance activity posting week-over-week declines. “Even with lower average mortgage rates, applications declined over the week as ongoing economic uncertainty weighed on potential homebuyers’ purchase decisions,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. Refinance applications were down 2% from the prior week but remain 25% higher than the same week last year. Purchase applications fell 3% on a seasonally adjusted basis but are still 14% above 2024 levels. These declines come after a brief rebound in early June and underscore the fragile sentiment in the housing market. The average 30-year fixed rate decreased to 6.84%, the lowest level since April, with modest declines across most other loan types as well. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 6.84% (−0.09) | Points: 0.66 (+0.02) 15yr Fixed: 6.14% (−0.02) | Points: 0.70 (+0.04) Jumbo 30yr: 6.81% (−0.12) | Points: 0.63 (no change) FHA: 6.57% (−0.03) | Points: 0.90 (+0.02) 5/1 ARM: 6.10% (−0.12) | Points: 0.57 (+0.24)