May 23 2025

The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales for April today, and at face value, the news is good.  Economists expected an annual pace of 692k, but were instead treated to a surprisingly high 743k--just edging out 3 of the best months over the past 3 years. Unlike many of the other reports we cover, there's really no glaring counterpoint when we zoom out to a wider frame of reference.  Sure, sales were higher during the post-pandemic housing frenzy, but unlike existing homes and other housing data, New Home Sales are as good or better than their pre-pandemic levels.  So what's the catch? It's too soon to say.  In some sense, today's results are cheapened by the fact that last month's numbers were revised quite a bit lower.  Granted, big revisions are not-at-all uncommon for this data series, but if we're going to award titles like "best levels in 3 years," it's worth noting that this will not be the case if we see even a fraction of the same sort of downward revision next month. Geographically, the surprising surge was led by the South and Midwest.  The Western region held mostly steady and the Northeast lost ground.  Northeast 23k (down 4k from March) Midwest 84k (up 22k from March) South 478k (up 50k from March) West 158k (up 5k from March)

May 23 2025

Two months ago, existing home sales came in at the highest levels in a year according the the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Last month's report showed a fairly sharp decline to 5 month lows. The latest data, out this week is less sensational by comparison. Granted, we can now technically say that existing sales are at 6 month lows, but they really didn't change much from a month ago. As has been and continues to be the case, zooming out on the same chart results in an entirely different impression of the home resale market. Then again, there is perhaps some solace in zooming out even more. “Home sales have been at 75% of normal or pre-pandemic activity for the past three years, even with seven million jobs added to the economy,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Pent-up housing demand continues to grow, though not realized. Any meaningful decline in mortgage rates will help release this demand.” Here's a regional breakdown of sales activity and prices from this report: Northeast Sales : 480,000 annual rate (↓2.0% from March) Median Price : $487,400 (↑6.3% YoY) Midwest Sales : 970,000 annual rate (↑2.1% from March) Median Price : $313,300 (↑3.6% YoY) South Sales : 1.81 million annual rate (unchanged from March) Median Price : $365,300 (↓0.1% YoY) West Sales : 740,000 annual rate (↓3.9% from March) Median Price : $628,500 (↓0.2% YoY)

May 23 2025

The Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) weekly application survey has been doing a good job of tracking with the more granular daily rate data from MND. Both are in agreement that rates were on their way up to the highest levels in several months last week--a fact that seems to have taken a toll on both purchase and refinance applications. “Mortgage rates jumped to their highest level since February last week, with investors concerned about rising inflation and the impact of increasing deficits and debt,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “Higher rates, including the 30-year fixed rate increasing to 6.92 percent, led to a slowdown across the board. However, purchase applications are up 13 percent from one year ago.” Here's the full breakdown on MBA's surveyed rates from last week: 30yr Fixed: 6.92% (+0.06) | Points: 0.69 (+0.01) Jumbo 30yr: 6.94% (+0.09) | Points: 0.72 (+0.23) FHA: 6.60% (+0.01) | Points: 0.96 (+0.07) 15yr Fixed: 6.21% (+0.09) | Points: 0.72 (+0.13) 5/1 ARM: 6.16% (+0.07) | Points: 0.36 (−0.38)