September 19 2025

The Census Bureau’s latest Residential Construction report showed a mixed picture for August, highlighted by a sharp drop in building permits. Total housing starts (the groundbreaking phase of construction) fell 2.3% to a 1.398 million annual rate, led by a 3.4% decline in single-family starts to 906k. Multifamily activity eased 1.5% to 464k but continues to trend higher over the past several months, signaling sustained demand for apartments and other multi-unit projects. The standout shift came on the permitting side. Total permits dropped 6.8% to a 1.264 million annual pace—one of the steepest monthly declines in years. Single-family permits slid 5.1% to 827k and multifamily permits fell 9.3% to 437k. Importantly, though, permits had been running well above starts for much of the year. This latest pullback brings the two measures into closer alignment, suggesting a more balanced pipeline. Note the broadly flat pace of housing starts.  This suggests a fairly steady pace of construction for now.

September 19 2025

What a difference a week makes for mortgage application demand. As we noted last week, mortgage rates were already trending lower than those captured in the weekly survey numbers from MBA and Freddie Mac.  The expectation was that refinance activity would be surging in this week's data.  That turns out to have been an understatement. For the first time in several years, we have to take our chart of MBA's refinance applications all the way back to 2022 in order to provide context for the levels achieved this week.  Until now, September 2024 set the high water mark. That's a whopping 58% increase in refi demand versus last week, and it's 70% higher than the same week one year ago. The Purchase Index rose only 3%, but that leaves it near the best levels since early 2023. Overall applications were up 29.7%, the 2nd biggest jump since the last week of 2022, and in outright terms, application activity rose by the highest amount since July 2021! There are already clouds on the horizon, unfortunately.  On the same day these numbers were released, rates began moving sharply higher in response to this week's Fed announcement (why?). The rate spike continued on Thursday in response to economic data.  All told, rates are easily back up to the highest levels since before the September 5th jobs report.  Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist noted "homeowners with larger loans jumped first, as the average loan size on refinances reached its highest level in the 35-year history of our survey."

September 10 2025

Mortgage applications jumped 9.2% last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s survey for the week ending September 5, 2025. The results included an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday. “Mortgage rates declined for the second consecutive week as Treasury yields moved lower on data indicating that the labor market is weakening. The 30-year fixed rate decreased to 6.49 percent, down 20 basis points over the past two weeks to the lowest since October 2024,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The downward rate movement spurred the strongest week of borrower demand since 2022, with both purchase and refinance applications moving higher. Purchase applications increased to the highest level since July and continued to run more than 20 percent ahead of last year’s pace. There was also a pickup in ARM applications, both in terms of level and share, as ARM rates were considerably lower than fixed rate loans, which typically benefits homebuyers.” The Refinance Index rose 12% from the previous week and is 34% higher than the same week a year ago. The Purchase Index increased 7% on a seasonally adjusted basis and is now 23% higher than last year’s level. The refinance share of total mortgage applications increased to 48.8%. ARM share rose to 9.2%. FHA share decreased to 18.5%, while VA share climbed to 15.3%. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 6.49% (from 6.64%) | Points: 0.56 (from 0.59) 15yr Fixed: 5.70% (from 5.84%) | Points: 0.55 (from 0.84) Jumbo 30yr: 6.44% (from 6.58%) | Points: 0.48 (from 0.39) FHA: 6.27% (from 6.31%) | Points: 0.68 (from 0.74) 5/1 ARM: 5.77% (from 5.90%) | Points: 0.63 (from 0.34)