May 08 2024

Lower interest rates allowed mortgage activity to rise modestly during the week ended May 3. It was the first increase in three weeks. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its Market Composite Index, a measure of the volume of mortgage applications, rose 2.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis compared to the prior week and 3.0 percent before adjustment. The Refinance Index increased 5.0 percent from the prior week but was 6.0 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 30.6 percent of total applications from 30.2 percent the week before. [refiappschart] The Purchase Index ticked up 2.0 percent on both an adjusted and unadjusted basis but was still 17.0 percent lower than the same week in 2023. [purchaseappschart] “Treasury rates and mortgage rates fell last week on the news of a slowing job market, with wage growth at the slowest pace since 2021, and the Federal Reserve’s announced plans to ease quantitative tightening in June and to maintain its view that another rate hike is unlikely. The conventional 30-year rate dropped 11 basis points, and the FHA rate fell 17 basis points to 6.92 percent, back below 7 percent for the first time in three weeks,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “Mortgage applications increased for the first time in three weeks, with refinances up 5.0 percent. Even with the increase, which included a 29 percent jump in VA refinances, refinance application volume remains about 6 percent below last year’s already low levels.”

May 01 2024

Rising interest rates continue to constrain mortgage borrowing. The Mortgage Bankers Association says its Market Composite Index, a measure of loan application volume, decreased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1.4 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 3.0 percent from the previous week and was 1.0 percent lower than the same week one year ago. Refinancing accounted for 30.2 percent of applications, down from 30.8 percent the previous week. [refiappschart] The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index was down by 2.0 percent from the one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1.0 percent compared with the previous week and lagged the volume during the same week in 2023 by 14.0 percent. [purchaseappschart] “Inflation remains stubbornly high, and this trend is convincing markets that rates, including mortgage rates, are going to stay higher for longer. No doubt, this is a headwind for the housing and mortgage markets, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate increasing to 7.29 percent last week, the highest level since November 2023,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “Application volume for both purchases and refinances declined over the week and remain well below last year’s pace. One notable trend is that the ARM share has reached its highest level for the year at 7.8 percent. Prospective homebuyers are looking for ways to improve affordability, and switching to an ARM is one means of doing that, with ARM rates in the mid-6 percent range for loans with an initial fixed period of 5 years.”

April 30 2024

Home price increases continued to accelerate in February even as interest rates also moved higher. Both the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices and the Housing Market Index (HMI) produced by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) showed annual price growth in the 7 percent range. Case-Shiller’s U.S. National Home Price Index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a non-seasonally adjusted 6.4 percent annual gain in February, compared to a 6.0 percent rise the previous month. The 10-City and 20-City Composites rose 8.0 percent and 7.3 percent respectively, up from 7.4 percent and 6.6 percent increases in January. San Diego continued to report the highest year-over-year appreciation among the 20 cities at 11.4 percent followed by Chicago and Detroit, each posting 8.9 percent growth.  Portland still holds the lowest position at 2.2 percent. The three non-seasonally adjusted indices posted monthly gains for the first time since November. The National Index rose 0.6 percent, the 20-City was up 0.9 percent, and the 10-City Composite grew 1.0 percent.  After seasonal adjustment, the increases were 0.4 percent for the National Index and 0.6 percent for each of the composites.   “U.S. home prices continued their drive higher,” says Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Our National Composite rose by 6.0 percent in January, the fastest annual rate since 2022.   For the third consecutive month, all cities reported increases in annual prices, with  four currently at all-time highs: San Diego, Los Angeles, Washington, D.C., and New York. On a seasonal adjusted basis, our National, 10- and 20- City Composite indices continue to break through previous all-time highs set last year.”