June 20 2025

The latest Residential Construction report from the Census Bureau showed a noticeable drop in overall housing starts in May, though single-family activity managed a small gain. Building permits also declined, continuing a trend of slight cooling in new construction momentum. As usual, the market focuses most on building permits and housing starts , with the latter representing the beginning of actual construction activity. Total starts fell nearly 10% to an annual pace of 1.256 million , down from 1.392 million in April. The decline was almost entirely due to a sharp drop in multifamily starts , which fell from 420k to 316k , the lowest level in over a year. In contrast, single-family starts edged up slightly to 924k from 920k . Building permits—a forward-looking indicator—also declined, dropping 2% from 1.422 million to 1.393 million . That included a 2.7% decline in single-family permits and a moderate slowdown in multifamily authorizations.

June 20 2025

Mortgage application activity declined modestly last week despite a drop in rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest survey. The Composite Index fell 2.6% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 13, with both purchase and refinance activity posting week-over-week declines. “Even with lower average mortgage rates, applications declined over the week as ongoing economic uncertainty weighed on potential homebuyers’ purchase decisions,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. Refinance applications were down 2% from the prior week but remain 25% higher than the same week last year. Purchase applications fell 3% on a seasonally adjusted basis but are still 14% above 2024 levels. These declines come after a brief rebound in early June and underscore the fragile sentiment in the housing market. The average 30-year fixed rate decreased to 6.84%, the lowest level since April, with modest declines across most other loan types as well. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 6.84% (−0.09) | Points: 0.66 (+0.02) 15yr Fixed: 6.14% (−0.02) | Points: 0.70 (+0.04) Jumbo 30yr: 6.81% (−0.12) | Points: 0.63 (no change) FHA: 6.57% (−0.03) | Points: 0.90 (+0.02) 5/1 ARM: 6.10% (−0.12) | Points: 0.57 (+0.24)

June 20 2025

Builder sentiment declined for the second straight month according to the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo's latest Housing Market Index (HMI). The headline index dropped two points to 32 in June, marking another step down toward the post-pandemic lows seen in 2023. All three components of the index moved lower: Current sales conditions fell two points to 35 Sales expectations for the next 6 months dipped to 40 Buyer traffic dropped to 21 Persistent affordability challenges—namely high mortgage rates and tariff-related material costs—remain major headwinds. As builders adapt, many are turning to price cuts and incentives to attract buyers. In fact, the share of builders reporting price reductions climbed to 37% in June, the highest since NAHB began tracking the data monthly in 2022. The average price cut held steady at 5%. Incentives were also widespread, with 62% of builders reporting some form of sales sweetener, up slightly from 61% in May. Despite the gloomy headline, it's worth noting that the market continues to be highly sensitive to any shift in rate expectations or material costs. As the broader economic picture evolves, builder sentiment may yet rebound—but for now, confidence remains historically low.