May 16 2025

The Census Bureau is out with monthly construction numbers for April showing an uptick in construction activity offset by slightly lower permitting.  While there are several other metrics in this report, building permits and housing starts (which measures when construction actually begins) are the two that are most widely followed. As seen in the chart below, housing starts tend to be more volatile, month to month.  In the present case, however, they were only slightly higher than the previous month at an annual pace of 1.361 million vs 1.339 million. Starts would have fallen had it not been for the multifamily sector.  Single unit starts dropped from 947k to 927k while multifamily starts surged from 378k to 420k, the highest since late 2023. Over the past few years, there are several housing and mortgage market metrics that paint a fairly gloomy picture.  Applications and builder confidence come to mind.  While the construction data is not as strong as it was a few years ago, it remains one of the better examples of strength in the sector as it remains higher than most of the pre-pandemic time frame.

May 16 2025

The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo released the monthly Housing Market Index (HMI) this week, showing builder confidence falling to the lowest levels since 2023.  This is about as low as the index has been since the housing crisis more than a decade ago. While persistently high interest rates remain a top concern for the housing market, a growing number of builders cited difficulty pricing new homes in light of the rapidly changing outlook for material costs due to tariffs.  With that in mind, it's important to note that 90% of this month's responses came in  before the US/China trade announcement.  Not only did that announcement drastically reduce tariffs for 90 days, it also offered a proof of concept that will likely see the outlook improve in the next survey due to lower material costs and a more upbeat consumer. Additional details are available at https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/housing-economics/indices/housing-market-index.

May 16 2025

Home purchase demand improved improved last week according to the MBA mortgage application survey. The improvement over the previous week was fairly modest, but the index was already the 4th highest reading of the past 2 years.  Now it's the 5th highest and the latest update takes its place, moving within striking distance of longer term highs. It's no secret that most measures of mortgage and housing activity have been operating in a low, narrow range compared to where they were a few years ago. The mortgage rate spike of 2022 gets most of the credit for that, and a longer term chart of refinance demand helps contextualize shorter term trends. All that to say, we have to zoom in if we hope to see changes in application demand. In so doing, we find refinance activity still elevated relative to most of the past few years, but not in the 'boomlet' territory seen last Fall. The absence of significant week-over-week movement in refi demand makes good sense in light of minimally-changed mortgage rates. MBA logged a 0.02% increase in the average 30yr fixed rate from the previous week which aligns fairly well with our daily rate tracking.   Since then, rates moved a bit higher through mid-week, but have dropped heading into the weekend. The net effect shouldn't be massive for application demand. Here's the MBA's surveyed changes in various rates and points (difference from last week in parentheses): 30yr Fixed: 6.86% (+0.02)  Points: 0.68 (no change) Jumbo 30yr: 6.85% (−0.01) Points: 0.49 (+0.03) FHA: 6.59% (+0.03) Points: 0.89 (+0.02) 15yr Fixed: 6.12% (−0.05) Points: 0.59 (−0.06) 5/1 ARM: 6.09% (+0.12) Points: 0.74 (+0.43)